Step-by-Step Guide: “Tariffs, Trade, and Trouble”
STEP 1: Open and Explore the Dataset
1. Open the Excel file titled Tariff -Recession Dataset.xlsx.
2. Review the columns:
o Real GDP Growth (%)
o Unemployment Rate (%)
o Consumer Price Index (CPI)
o Exports / Imports / Net Exports
o Manufacturing Employment
o Budget Deficit
o Consumer Confidence Index
3. Identify the timeline: Q1 2014 – Q4 2024 (44 quarters).
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STEP 2: Build Charts in Excel
Create the following line graphs (Insert → Chart → Line or Scatter with lines):
1. Real GDP Growth over Time
· X-axis: Quarter
· Y-axis: Real GDP Growth (%)
2. Net Exports over Time
· X-axis: Quarter
· Y-axis: Net Exports (Exports – Imports)
3. Unemployment Rate over Time
· X-axis: Quarter
· Y-axis: Unemployment Rate (%)
4. Consumer Confidence Index over Time
· X-axis: Quarter
· Y-axis: Confidence Index
Make sure to:
· Label each chart clearly
· Add a descriptive chart title
· Format axes and use gridlines for clarity
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STEP 3: Identify Pre-Tariff vs. Post-Tariff Periods
Pre-Tariff Period: Q1 2014 – Q4 2024 Simulated Post-Tariff Period: Q1 2026 – Q4 2026 (students should estimate values or use projections)
Note: In reality, we don’t have actual post-tariff data. You must simulate what could happen based on economic theory and observed pre-tariff trends.
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STEP 4: Perform Key Calculations in Excel
Use formulas or summary rows to:
1. Calculate average GDP growth rate:
o Pre-tariff (Q1 2014–Q4 2024)
o Simulated post-tariff (your estimates)
2. Calculate change in manufacturing employment:
o Compare beginning vs. end of timeline
3. Compare net exports and consumer confidence index:
o Look for significant upward/downward shifts
Use =AVERAGE(range), =MAX(), =MIN(), or create your own columns to calculate changes over time.
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STEP 5: Analyze Trends and Write Your Findings
In a short written analysis (1 page or less):
· Identify what changed after the tariffs (real or simulated)
· Discuss if the economy is weakening (signs: lower GDP, higher unemployment, lower confidence, shrinking net exports)
· Make an evidence-based conclusion:
o Is the economy heading toward recession?
o What indicators support your reasoning?
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STEP 6: Make a Recommendation
Based on your findings, recommend one of the following:
· Continue the tariff policy
· Modify the tariff policy
· Repeal the tariff policy
Justify your recommendation with data + economic reasoning (e.g., if GDP is falling and unemployment rising, it may point to recession).
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STEP 7: Create Final Deliverables
You must submit:
1. Excel File with:
o All graphs
o Calculations
o Clearly labeled sheet(s)
2. Executive Summary:
o One-page report with:
§ Graph screenshots
§ Summary of findings
§ Policy recommendation
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Bonus Tips:
· Use color-coding in Excel to highlight key changes
· Double-check that your graphs are easy to interpret
· Practice summarizing your findings in simple, clear language
