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decision analysiss

BBA312 DECISION ANALYSIS Task brief & rubrics Final Assignment

Formalities

Individual

· Minimum length of the assignment 1000 words – Maximum 1500 words.

· Essay form

· Relate your answers to the concepts delivered in class.

· Font: Arial 12,5pts. Line-spacing: default. Text-align: Justified.

· Bibliography/References in Harvard style.

· You may use Appendixes. These and the References do not count for the total wordcount.

TASK

Look at the following topic and answer the related questions:

BACKGROUND

You are trying to choose a school to do your Masters in after graduating from the EUBS.

INSTRUCTIONS

Question 1

Use a SMART Analysis to compare four different schools and use it to identify your best choice.

Question 2

You realise that the value of the Masters will depend on the grade you get on the course. You set out the values depending on whether your grade is High, Average or Low on this table below. For example, the value of Uni 1 if you finish with a high grade is 100 in your opinion but if you come out with a low grade it will only have a value of 10.

High Grade

Average Grade

Low Grade

Uni 1

100

60

10

Uni 2

90

70

30

Uni 3

70

50

40

Use the Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz and Savage Criteria to see which option would be the best one using each criteria separately. Explain your workings

Question 3

You then try to calculate the probability of getting these grades. They are shown in the table below. For example, you consider that you have a 20% chance of getting a high grade in Uni 1.

High Grade

Average Grade

Low Grade

Uni 1

20%

40%

40%

Uni 2

30%

40%

30%

Uni 3

50%

30%

20%

Draw a decision tree using these probabilities and the values in Question 2 to decide which of the three options would be the best one. If you prefer you can draw it on paper and insert the picture here.

Question 4

You are worried that the probability of getting a high grade may not be correctly estimated. Do a Sensitivity Analysis on this probability to see if your decision would change if the probability of getting a high grade were either lower or higher.

The Makeup assesses the following learning outcomes:

· Outcome 1: Understand the the use of frameworks to support decision making

· Outcome 2: Be able to apply these frameworks correctly

· Outcome 3: Be able to use qualitative and quantitative information to take appropriate decisions

Rubrics

Exceptional 90-100

Good 80-89

Fair 70-79

Marginal fail 60-69

Knowledge & Understanding (20%)

Student demonstrates excellent understanding of key concepts and uses vocabulary in an entirely appropriate manner.

Student demonstrates good understanding of the task and mentions some relevant concepts and demonstrates use of the relevant vocabulary.

Student understands the task and provides minimum theory and/or some use of vocabulary.

Student understands the task and attempts to answer the question but does not mention key concepts or uses minimum amount of relevant vocabulary.

Application (30%)

Student applies fully relevant knowledge from the topics delivered in class.

Student applies mostly relevant knowledge from the topics delivered in class.

Student applies some relevant knowledge from the topics delivered in class. Misunderstanding may be evident.

Student applies little relevant knowledge from the topics delivered in class. Misunderstands are evident.

Calcuations (30%)

Student calculations are completely accurate, leading them to coherent conclusions

Student calculations are mostly accurate, leading them to relevant conclusions

Student calculations have a few mistakes leading them to not always find a conclusion that fits the question

Student calculations have several mistakes leading them to come to the wrong conclusions

Communication (20%)

Student communicates their ideas extremely clearly and concisely, respecting word count, grammar and spellcheck

Student communicates their ideas clearly and concisely, respecting word count, grammar and spellcheck

Student communicates their ideas with some clarity and concision. It may be slightly over or under the wordcount limit. Some misspelling errors may be evident.

Student communicates their ideas in a somewhat unclear and unconcise way. Does not reach or does exceed wordcount excessively and misspelling errors are evident.

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