will need toight if possible
Project Assignment BUSA 511, Business Analytics for Managers
The case
Considering monthly demands for the ABC Corporation as shown below.
Question
Project Assignment Guidance
1. To answer the question above, firstly based on the monthly sales data of Year 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, you should forecast the 12 monthly demands of Year 6 from January to December using ”
moving average”
, ”
simple exponential smoothing”
, ”
Holts’ model
“, and ”
Winter’s model”, respectively
. Secondly, you should calculate the forecast-error indicators of bias, TS, MAD, MAPE, and MSE regarding these four models. Thirdly, based on your findings, you should identify the best forecasting methods and provide your justifications.
2. Two documents should be submitted for this assignment.
The first
is the Excel file in which the formula, the calculation processes and solutions of the four forecasting methods, and the related forecast-error estimates of bias, TS, MAD, MAPE, and MSE should be given.
The second
is the word file template as report by answering questions asked in the report template. This word file template will be posted on D2L.
(
Note: Sample of the work in excel and Video recording of the tutorial is posted on D2L)
3. The mark weighting of the analysis of the above four forecasting methods will be listed in the report template posted on D2L.
4. The submission deadline is stated on D2L page for the course.
5. You should submit e-copy of your assignment (word-format report with Excel file(s), through the submission portal on D2L (no hard copy needed)
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