In this lab project, you will work with the
En-ROADS simulation model developed by Climate Interactive and MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative to create a scenario that can mitigate
global warmingLinks to an external site. to the internationally agreed target of less than 2 °C, and ideally 1.5 °C. En-ROADS is an interactive tool for simulating the long-term impacts of policy actions on global warming. This includes policies affecting energy supply, energy efficiency, carbon emissions prices, land use, and other factors that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Since En-ROADS is a global model, the policy levers simulate if the action were applied to the entire world. En-ROADS does not attempt to address the complex nuances of how different countries and political groups might respond to each policy.
En-ROADS is grounded in the best-available science about climate impacts; solutions; and the complex interactions of the climate, energy, land, population, and economic systems. As you are completing the En-ROADS simulation model, and work toward your mission of recommending global policies and investments, keep the following goals in mind:
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Limit global warming. Global warming above 2 °C will cause dangerous and irreversible impacts that will harm our prosperity, security, health, and lives. Limiting warming to less than 2 °C is not without challenges either (we are already seeing impacts today); however, it is a benchmark by which scientists and world leaders believe we can lower the risks to a more manageable level.
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Preserve and create a healthy economy. Your policies should strive to lead a global energy transition that would preserve and create a healthy global economy. You must decide how to balance the short-term costs of climate actions with the long-term costs of damages from climate inaction. Note that financial costs are not explicitly predicted in the model as they are uncertain and controversial. You may offer your own hypotheses on the financial impacts of different decisions.
· While assessing the economics, also consider the potential to offset short-term costs with additional cobenefits, for example, benefits to the economy, public health, national security, and other areas which could augment the direct benefits of mitigating global warming.
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Promote equity and a just transition. Consider the impacts of your policies for both developed and developing countries, and between the rich and poor people within such nations. Consider whether your policies will disproportionately harm certain groups and how to mitigate such harms (e.g., If you favor policies that would reduce or shut down fossil fuel use, how will your policies address the resulting unemployment of people employed by the fossil fuel industry?). Also consider how opportunities for the new green economy can be shared more equitably and not leave marginalized groups behind.
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Protect the environment. Many environmental challenges besides climate change threaten human welfare—for example, water shortage, air and water pollution (smogLinks to an external site., particulatesLinks to an external site.), soil loss, plastic pollution,
anoxic zones (dead zones)Links to an external site. in rivers and oceans, extinction of species, and so on. Your proposals should minimize these other harmful effects on the environment.
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Be realistic but not cynical. Imagine a scenario of what could be possible if human civilization operates at its best.
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Submit a write-up expressing your vision. After developing your preferred scenario, write a thoughtful and concise response to the questions that follow in this prompt. Develop your vision and approach on the issues. Instructions on how to format your write-up are at the end of this activity prompt.
Your En-ROADS lab assignment will be a 3- to 5-page memo describing your proposal.
Provide a short, memorable name for your plan
2. Paste a screenshot of the main En-ROADS interface showing your results
3. Present bullet points summarizing your most important policies and outcomes
4. Paste the text from Actions & Outcomes to document all the assumptions and policy
settings you choose in your scenario, formatting the content so it looks more like the
sample in the template (font size 11, no bold text).Access the “Actions & Outcomes”
feature from the “View” menu.
Figure 1: Actions & Outcomes
Paste your URL from the “Copy scenario link” option in the Share Your
Scenario feature on the top tool bar
Figure 2: Copy scenario link
Illustrative Example
The example on the following pages is illustrative only. Note that the policies shown in
the example do not reduce expected global warming to below 2 degrees C. Your
preferred strategy should attempt to do so. Please note that due to updates to the EN-
ROADS activity website, some of the visual representation may look a little different.
Summary:
My proposals favor technological innovation over regulation and taxes by providing:
• Large subsidies for nuclear energy
• Heavy investment in R&D to yield cheap fusion power (New Tech)
• Large subsidies and investment to develop technologies to remove carbon from
the atmosphere
• Reduce emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases through innovation
• Yields expected warming of 3.0C (5.4F) by 2100.
• I believe aggressive tax and/or regulatory policies to mitigate emissions are
politically difficult. Our proposal therefore stresses policies to stimulate R&D
aimed at bringing nuclear back and, eventually, introducing new technologies
that, while not feasible or cost-effective today, promise carbon- free electricity
cheaper than coal, along with technologies like DAC (direct air capture of CO2),
BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration), and others that can
remove CO2 from the atmosphere. These policies do not meet the 2°C goal, but
we believe that additional technological innovation, as yet unknown, will enable
society to adapt to a world with 3°C of warming by 2100.
PAGE 1
· Tech Breakthroughs: Nuclear, Fusion, Carbon Removal
Scenario Policies:
Nuclear
Nuclear (tax/subsidy) = -0.03 $/kWh
New Zero-Carbon
New Zero-Carbon breakthrough = 1
Methane & Other Gases
Methane and other gases (reduce/increase) = -12 %
Technological Carbon Removal
Technological carbon removal (% of max potential) = 56 %
Temperature Increase in 2100
3.0 ºC / 5.4 ºF
CO2 Concentration in 2100
572 ppm
Sea Level Rise in 2100
0.6 m / 2.2 ft
Cumulative Avoided CO2 by 2100
647 gigatons CO2
Discounted Cumulative Damage through 2100
5,772 trillion $
SCENARIO LINK:
0.03&p35=1&p59=-12&p67=56&g0=2&g1=62
Climate: How well do you think your proposal does in meeting the Paris climate goals? If it does not meet the goal, why is this acceptable to you?
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Economy: If the world followed your recommendations, how would the economy be different at various points in the future, for example, 2030, 2050, and 2100, and so on? In what ways would it be better? In what ways would it be worse?
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Equity: How can your proposal strive to increase equity across different nations and different peoples?
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Environment: To what extent might your proposal mitigate other environmental challenges (e.g., biodiversity, pollution, water, and air quality)? To what extent might your proposal cause or worsen other environmental problems?
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Realism without cynicism: What would it take for your proposal to be realized? What barriers might arise in the implementation of your proposals, and how might they be addressed? To get started, what actions and priorities are needed as soon as possible from businesses, civil society, governments, or the public?
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Winners/Losers: Who would be the biggest winners and losers globally in your proposed future? Create a table with two columns for winners and losers.
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Surprises from En-ROADS: What surprised you about the behavior of the energy and climate system as captured in the simulation? For example, what actions had a bigger or smaller effect than you thought? Did you discover why?
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Feelings: How did your insights from the model and this assignment make you feel? (feelings as in emotions, not thoughts)
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Hope and personal action: Do any trends in the world give you hope that your proposals are possible? What can you personally do to help create the necessary changes?
The Simulating Climate Futures in En-ROADS Laboratory memo write-up,
· must be 3 to 5 double-spaced pages in length (not including title and references pages)
