WGU MBA Data-Driven Decision making

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QUM2 — QUM2 TASK 2: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

DATA-DRIVEN DECISION MAKING — C207

PRFA — QUM2

COMPETENCIES

3009.1.1 : The Case for Quantitative Analysis
The graduate uses decision-making methods to develop strategies for organizational decision processes.

3009.1.2 : Statistics as a Managerial Tool
The graduate uses a variety of decision-analysis tools to evaluate alternatives during the decision-making

processes.

3009.1.3 : More Statistical Tools
The graduate uses quantitative techniques and statistical tools to identify the most appropriate decision

alternatives.

3009.1.4 : Quality Metrics and Tools

The graduate analyzes how work is accomplished and applies quality metrics and tools to increase efficiency,

effectiveness, and quality.

3009.1.5 : Real World Data-Driven Decisions

The graduate analyzes data from business intelligence and knowledge-management systems to make
appropriate decisions.

3009.1.6 : Improving Organization Performance

The graduate uses appropriate data to improve organizational performance.

INTRODUCTION

Managers are required to organize, interpret, and display data that is relevant to the real-world business

decisions they must make in their businesses. Business decisions must be based on relevant and reliable data.

The use of analytical tools will improve your ability to use data to make informed decisions.

In this task, you will address the business situation in the attached scenario. You will access the scenario and
data set by entering your student ID number in the “Start” tab of the “Decision Tree Resources” attachment.

The scenario and data set are located in the “Decision Tree Scenario” tab. Using this data set, you will perform

a decision tree analysis and recommend a solution. This recommendation will be included in a report that you
will write, summarizing the key details of your analysis.

For full functionality of the scenario and data attachment, you are strongly encouraged to use Microsoft

Excel, which is available via the Microsoft Office 365 subscription service provided to all WGU students. It

can be downloaded using the “Microsoft Office 365” link in the weblinks section.

Task Overview Submissions Evaluation Report

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SCENARIO

Refer to the scenario located in the attached “Decision Tree Analysis Resources.”

REQUIREMENTS

Your submission must be your original work. No more than a combined total of 30% of the submission and no

more than a 10% match to any one individual source can be directly quoted or closely paraphrased from
sources, even if cited correctly. The originality report that is provided when you submit your task can be used

as a guide.
 

You must use the rubric to direct the creation of your submission because it provides detailed criteria that

will be used to evaluate your work. Each requirement below may be evaluated by more than one rubric
aspect. The rubric aspect titles may contain hyperlinks to relevant portions of the course.

 
Tasks may not be submitted as cloud links, such as links to Google Docs, Google Slides, OneDrive, etc., unless

specified in the task requirements. All other submissions must be file types that are uploaded and submitted

as attachments (e.g., .docx, .pdf, .ppt).
 

Complete your decision tree analysis and create a report (suggested length of 2–4 pages or 800 words) by
doing the following:

 
Note: You are encouraged to use the template located within the attached “Decision Tree Analysis

Resources” to complete your analysis. While it is required that you use the scenario and data set located

in the attachment, the use of the data analysis template is optional.
 

A.  Describe a business question that could be answered by applying decision tree analysis and is derived
from the scenario in the attached “Decision Tree Analysis Resources.”

 

B.  Identify the relevant data values required for your decision tree analysis, including the following:
•   probabilities

•   payoffs
•   profits

•   demand

 
C.  Report how you analyzed the data using decision tree analysis by doing the following:

1.  Complete a decision tree diagram, including each of the following: 
•   state-of-nature nodes

•   calculated payoffs, each expressed out to two decimal places

•   expected values, each expressed out to two decimal places
 

Note: You can submit the completed decision tree diagram using a separate attachment or the
optional template on the attached “Decision Tree Analysis Resources.”

 

Note: Refer to “Prepare for the Performance Assessment Task 2” in the course of study to see
examples of acceptable output. 

 
2.  Justify why decision tree analysis is the appropriate analysis technique, including relevant details from

the scenario to support your justification.

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D.  Summarize the implications of your decision tree analysis by doing the following:
1.  Explain the role of probabilities and the role of demand for each branch.

2.  Explain how the expected value of each node is determined based on payoffs.
 

Note: Refer “Prepare for the Performance Assessment Task 2” in the course of study to see an example

of an acceptable discussion of results.
 

3.  Discuss one limitation of each of the following:
•   the data elements

•   the decision tree analysis

 
E.  Recommend a course of action that addresses the business question from part A and is based on the

results of your decision tree analysis.
 

F.  Acknowledge sources, using in-text citations and references, for content that is quoted, paraphrased, or

summarized.
 

G.  Demonstrate professional communication in the content and presentation of your submission.

File Restrictions

File name may contain only letters, numbers, spaces, and these symbols: ! – _ . * ‘ ( )
File size limit: 200 MB

File types allowed: doc, docx, rtf, xls, xlsx, ppt, pptx, odt, pdf, csv, txt, qt, mov, mpg, avi, mp3, wav, mp4, wma, flv, asf,

mpeg, wmv, m4v, svg, tif, tiff, jpeg, jpg, gif, png, zip, rar, tar, 7z

RUBRIC

A:BUSINESS PROBLEM DESCRIPTION

B:RELEVANT DATA

NOT EVIDENT

A description of the business

question is not provided.

APPROACHING

COMPETENCE

The business question described

is not relevant to the scenario, is

not accurate, or is not appropri-

ate for decision tree analysis.

COMPETENT

The business question is accu-

rately described, is relevant to

the scenario, and is appropriate

for decision tree analysis.

NOT EVIDENT

Data values are not provided.

APPROACHING

COMPETENCE

The data values provided are

not accurate or not relevant for

the decision tree analysis, or 1

COMPETENT

The relevant data values are ac-

curately identified for the deci-

sion tree analysis, including each

of the given elements.

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C1:DECISION TREE DIAGRAM

C2:ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE JUSTIFICATION

D1:PROBABILITIES AND DEMAND

D2:EXPECTED VALUES

or more of the given elements

are not included.

NOT EVIDENT

A decision tree diagram is not

provided.

APPROACHING
COMPETENCE

The decision tree diagram pro-

vided does not contain 1 or

more of the given elements, or

the decision tree diagram con-

tains 1 or more inaccuracies.

COMPETENT

The decision tree diagram accu-

rately includes each of the given

elements.

NOT EVIDENT

A justification of decision tree

analysis is not provided.

APPROACHING

COMPETENCE

The justification of decision tree

analysis does not logically ex-

plain why it is the appropriate

analysis technique, or the justifi-

cation is not supported with rel-

evant details from the scenario.

COMPETENT

The justification of decision tree

analysis logically explains why it

is the appropriate analysis tech-

nique and is supported with rele-

vant details from the scenario.

NOT EVIDENT

An explanation of the role of

probabilities and demand is not

provided.

APPROACHING
COMPETENCE

The explanation does not logi-

cally address both the role of

probabilities and the role of de-

mand for 1 or more of the

branches of the decision tree

analysis.

COMPETENT

The explanation logically ad-

dresses both the role of probabil-

ities and the role of demand for

each branch of the decision tree

analysis.

NOT EVIDENT

An explanation of how the ex-

pected value is determined for

each node is not provided.

APPROACHING

COMPETENCE

The explanation does not logi-

cally and accurately address 1 or

more steps required to deter-

mine the value of 1 or more

nodes based on payoffs.

COMPETENT

The explanation logically and ac-

curately addresses each step re-

quired to determine the ex-

pected value of each node based

on payoffs.

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D3:LIMITATIONS

E:RECOMMEND COURSE OF ACTION

F:SOURCES

G:PROFESSIONAL COMMUNICATION

NOT EVIDENT

A discussion of 1 limitation of

the data elements and 1 limita-

tion of the decision tree analysis

is not provided.

APPROACHING

COMPETENCE

The discussion addresses 1 limi-

tation of the data elements and

1 limitation of the decision tree

analysis, but 1 or both of the lim-

itations provided are not logical.

COMPETENT

The discussion logically ad-

dresses 1 limitation of the data

elements and 1 limitation of the

decision tree analysis.

NOT EVIDENT

A recommended course of ac-

tion is not provided.

APPROACHING

COMPETENCE

The recommended course of ac-

tion is not logically supported by

the results of the decision tree

analysis or does not appropri-

ately address the business ques-

tion from part A.

COMPETENT

The recommended course of ac-

tion is logically supported by the

results of the decision tree analy-

sis and appropriately addresses

the business question from part

A.

NOT EVIDENT

The submission does not include

both in-text citations and a ref-

erence list for sources that are

quoted, paraphrased, or

summarized.

APPROACHING

COMPETENCE

The submission includes in-text

citations for sources that are

quoted, paraphrased, or summa-

rized and a reference list; how-

ever, the citations or reference

list is incomplete or inaccurate.

COMPETENT

The submission includes in-text

citations for sources that are

properly quoted, paraphrased, or

summarized and a reference list

that accurately identifies the au-

thor, date, title, and source loca-

tion as available.

NOT EVIDENT

This submission includes profes-

sional communication errors re-

lated to spelling, grammar, punc-

tuation, and sentence fluency.

For best results, please focus on

the specific Correctness errors

identified by Grammarly for

Education to help guide your re-

visions. If you need additional

APPROACHING

COMPETENCE

This submission includes profes-

sional communication errors re-

lated to spelling, grammar, punc-

tuation, and/or sentence flu-

ency. For best results, please fo-

cus on the specific Correctness

errors identified by Grammarly

COMPETENT

This submission demonstrates

correct use of spelling, grammar,

punctuation, and sentence flu-

ency. You have demonstrated

quality professional communica-

tion skills in this submission.

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WEB LINKS

Microsoft Office 365

SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS

Decision Tree Analysis Resources.xlsx

assistance preparing your sub-

mission, please contact your

Instructor.

for Education to help guide your

revisions.

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