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QUM2 — QUM2 TASK 2: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS
DATA-DRIVEN DECISION MAKING — C207
PRFA — QUM2
COMPETENCIES
3009.1.1 : The Case for Quantitative Analysis
The graduate uses decision-making methods to develop strategies for organizational decision processes.
3009.1.2 : Statistics as a Managerial Tool
The graduate uses a variety of decision-analysis tools to evaluate alternatives during the decision-making
processes.
3009.1.3 : More Statistical Tools
The graduate uses quantitative techniques and statistical tools to identify the most appropriate decision
alternatives.
3009.1.4 : Quality Metrics and Tools
The graduate analyzes how work is accomplished and applies quality metrics and tools to increase efficiency,
effectiveness, and quality.
3009.1.5 : Real World Data-Driven Decisions
The graduate analyzes data from business intelligence and knowledge-management systems to make
appropriate decisions.
3009.1.6 : Improving Organization Performance
The graduate uses appropriate data to improve organizational performance.
INTRODUCTION
Managers are required to organize, interpret, and display data that is relevant to the real-world business
decisions they must make in their businesses. Business decisions must be based on relevant and reliable data.
The use of analytical tools will improve your ability to use data to make informed decisions.
In this task, you will address the business situation in the attached scenario. You will access the scenario and
data set by entering your student ID number in the “Start” tab of the “Decision Tree Resources” attachment.
The scenario and data set are located in the “Decision Tree Scenario” tab. Using this data set, you will perform
a decision tree analysis and recommend a solution. This recommendation will be included in a report that you
will write, summarizing the key details of your analysis.
For full functionality of the scenario and data attachment, you are strongly encouraged to use Microsoft
Excel, which is available via the Microsoft Office 365 subscription service provided to all WGU students. It
can be downloaded using the “Microsoft Office 365” link in the weblinks section.
Task Overview Submissions Evaluation Report
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SCENARIO
Refer to the scenario located in the attached “Decision Tree Analysis Resources.”
REQUIREMENTS
Your submission must be your original work. No more than a combined total of 30% of the submission and no
more than a 10% match to any one individual source can be directly quoted or closely paraphrased from
sources, even if cited correctly. The originality report that is provided when you submit your task can be used
as a guide.
You must use the rubric to direct the creation of your submission because it provides detailed criteria that
will be used to evaluate your work. Each requirement below may be evaluated by more than one rubric
aspect. The rubric aspect titles may contain hyperlinks to relevant portions of the course.
Tasks may not be submitted as cloud links, such as links to Google Docs, Google Slides, OneDrive, etc., unless
specified in the task requirements. All other submissions must be file types that are uploaded and submitted
as attachments (e.g., .docx, .pdf, .ppt).
Complete your decision tree analysis and create a report (suggested length of 2–4 pages or 800 words) by
doing the following:
Note: You are encouraged to use the template located within the attached “Decision Tree Analysis
Resources” to complete your analysis. While it is required that you use the scenario and data set located
in the attachment, the use of the data analysis template is optional.
A. Describe a business question that could be answered by applying decision tree analysis and is derived
from the scenario in the attached “Decision Tree Analysis Resources.”
B. Identify the relevant data values required for your decision tree analysis, including the following:
• probabilities
• payoffs
• profits
• demand
C. Report how you analyzed the data using decision tree analysis by doing the following:
1. Complete a decision tree diagram, including each of the following:
• state-of-nature nodes
• calculated payoffs, each expressed out to two decimal places
• expected values, each expressed out to two decimal places
Note: You can submit the completed decision tree diagram using a separate attachment or the
optional template on the attached “Decision Tree Analysis Resources.”
Note: Refer to “Prepare for the Performance Assessment Task 2” in the course of study to see
examples of acceptable output.
2. Justify why decision tree analysis is the appropriate analysis technique, including relevant details from
the scenario to support your justification.
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D. Summarize the implications of your decision tree analysis by doing the following:
1. Explain the role of probabilities and the role of demand for each branch.
2. Explain how the expected value of each node is determined based on payoffs.
Note: Refer “Prepare for the Performance Assessment Task 2” in the course of study to see an example
of an acceptable discussion of results.
3. Discuss one limitation of each of the following:
• the data elements
• the decision tree analysis
E. Recommend a course of action that addresses the business question from part A and is based on the
results of your decision tree analysis.
F. Acknowledge sources, using in-text citations and references, for content that is quoted, paraphrased, or
summarized.
G. Demonstrate professional communication in the content and presentation of your submission.
File Restrictions
File name may contain only letters, numbers, spaces, and these symbols: ! – _ . * ‘ ( )
File size limit: 200 MB
File types allowed: doc, docx, rtf, xls, xlsx, ppt, pptx, odt, pdf, csv, txt, qt, mov, mpg, avi, mp3, wav, mp4, wma, flv, asf,
mpeg, wmv, m4v, svg, tif, tiff, jpeg, jpg, gif, png, zip, rar, tar, 7z
RUBRIC
A:BUSINESS PROBLEM DESCRIPTION
B:RELEVANT DATA
NOT EVIDENT
A description of the business
question is not provided.
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
The business question described
is not relevant to the scenario, is
not accurate, or is not appropri-
ate for decision tree analysis.
COMPETENT
The business question is accu-
rately described, is relevant to
the scenario, and is appropriate
for decision tree analysis.
NOT EVIDENT
Data values are not provided.
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
The data values provided are
not accurate or not relevant for
the decision tree analysis, or 1
COMPETENT
The relevant data values are ac-
curately identified for the deci-
sion tree analysis, including each
of the given elements.
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C1:DECISION TREE DIAGRAM
C2:ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE JUSTIFICATION
D1:PROBABILITIES AND DEMAND
D2:EXPECTED VALUES
or more of the given elements
are not included.
NOT EVIDENT
A decision tree diagram is not
provided.
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
The decision tree diagram pro-
vided does not contain 1 or
more of the given elements, or
the decision tree diagram con-
tains 1 or more inaccuracies.
COMPETENT
The decision tree diagram accu-
rately includes each of the given
elements.
NOT EVIDENT
A justification of decision tree
analysis is not provided.
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
The justification of decision tree
analysis does not logically ex-
plain why it is the appropriate
analysis technique, or the justifi-
cation is not supported with rel-
evant details from the scenario.
COMPETENT
The justification of decision tree
analysis logically explains why it
is the appropriate analysis tech-
nique and is supported with rele-
vant details from the scenario.
NOT EVIDENT
An explanation of the role of
probabilities and demand is not
provided.
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
The explanation does not logi-
cally address both the role of
probabilities and the role of de-
mand for 1 or more of the
branches of the decision tree
analysis.
COMPETENT
The explanation logically ad-
dresses both the role of probabil-
ities and the role of demand for
each branch of the decision tree
analysis.
NOT EVIDENT
An explanation of how the ex-
pected value is determined for
each node is not provided.
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
The explanation does not logi-
cally and accurately address 1 or
more steps required to deter-
mine the value of 1 or more
nodes based on payoffs.
COMPETENT
The explanation logically and ac-
curately addresses each step re-
quired to determine the ex-
pected value of each node based
on payoffs.
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D3:LIMITATIONS
E:RECOMMEND COURSE OF ACTION
F:SOURCES
G:PROFESSIONAL COMMUNICATION
NOT EVIDENT
A discussion of 1 limitation of
the data elements and 1 limita-
tion of the decision tree analysis
is not provided.
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
The discussion addresses 1 limi-
tation of the data elements and
1 limitation of the decision tree
analysis, but 1 or both of the lim-
itations provided are not logical.
COMPETENT
The discussion logically ad-
dresses 1 limitation of the data
elements and 1 limitation of the
decision tree analysis.
NOT EVIDENT
A recommended course of ac-
tion is not provided.
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
The recommended course of ac-
tion is not logically supported by
the results of the decision tree
analysis or does not appropri-
ately address the business ques-
tion from part A.
COMPETENT
The recommended course of ac-
tion is logically supported by the
results of the decision tree analy-
sis and appropriately addresses
the business question from part
A.
NOT EVIDENT
The submission does not include
both in-text citations and a ref-
erence list for sources that are
quoted, paraphrased, or
summarized.
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
The submission includes in-text
citations for sources that are
quoted, paraphrased, or summa-
rized and a reference list; how-
ever, the citations or reference
list is incomplete or inaccurate.
COMPETENT
The submission includes in-text
citations for sources that are
properly quoted, paraphrased, or
summarized and a reference list
that accurately identifies the au-
thor, date, title, and source loca-
tion as available.
NOT EVIDENT
This submission includes profes-
sional communication errors re-
lated to spelling, grammar, punc-
tuation, and sentence fluency.
For best results, please focus on
the specific Correctness errors
identified by Grammarly for
Education to help guide your re-
visions. If you need additional
APPROACHING
COMPETENCE
This submission includes profes-
sional communication errors re-
lated to spelling, grammar, punc-
tuation, and/or sentence flu-
ency. For best results, please fo-
cus on the specific Correctness
errors identified by Grammarly
COMPETENT
This submission demonstrates
correct use of spelling, grammar,
punctuation, and sentence flu-
ency. You have demonstrated
quality professional communica-
tion skills in this submission.
11/8/24, 12:57 PM WGU Performance Assessment
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